In order to support local authorities and to verify the developed dispersion model as well as proposed decision-making techniques, an industrial source in northern Montenegro was used. The Thermo Electric Plant Pljevlja (TEPP) has an output power of 218 MW and is one of the biggest polluters in Montenegro.
Due to the lack of filters, harmful gases are released directly into the atmosphere, among others Sulfur Dioxide, SO2. As a case study, a day when an accident occurred at TEEP has been selected. Because of specific weather conditions, the plume spread over the city, and the CETI station situated in the city center measured increased concentrations of SO2 near the alarm value of 110 μg/m3, the level at or above which the general population could experience life-threatening health effects.
At the same time, 09:00, the GES system received the source parameters from the TEPP Command Room and weather conditions from the HMZCG (Table 1, Scenario 1- SC1).
Table 1: Input data for TEPP during an accident, June 12, 2011
The simulation model was started showing a plume spreading and increased zone of SO2 over the city area. The simulation of the initial situation is displayed in Fig. 5. The RED zone (Fig. 5d) is associated with 110 μg/m3, (the Montenegrin alarm threshold), ORANGE 26-50 μg/m3 (European Union threshold) and YELLOW 25 μg/m3. The WHITE line border unsafe area was obtained by perimeter and angle spans. In parallel the span perimeter SP and span angle SA for unsafe areas are defined by emergency experts for the purpose of evacuation (WHITE line around the RED zone) (Fig. 6).
Figure 5: Simulation of scenario SC1
Simultaneously, taking into account weather forecasts from the HMZCG, SC2 is considered for the next 3 hours, until 12:00. SC2 shows that wind speed and direction will change as well as temperature (Table 1, SC2). The unsafe area under SC2 shifts to the region around the Thermo Plant, with low population density but measures of protection need to be taken in area SC2. At 12:00 the actual weather conditions are taken, Table 1, SC3, shows the difference in wind speed and direction as obtained by forecasts and actual data. However, with a good delineation of the unsafe area, the actual threat zone (RED in SC3) still overlaps with the unsafe area SC2 (See marker Unsafe Area Z3(SC3&SC2), Fig. 6).
Figure 6: Scenarios SC1, SC2 and SC3 together with unsafe areas
